基于实际数据分析的列车晚点传播过程构建方法与实例

A method for constructing train delay propagation process by mining train record data

基于轨道区段锁闭时间理论,提出了两趟列车间晚点传播过程的构建方法,在此基础上研究了构建多趟列车晚点传播链(树)的方法.以荷兰铁路繁忙干线之一的莱顿—海牙—鹿特丹—多特雷赫特—多特雷赫特南站线路为背景,选取2009年2月的数据,从列车间晚点传播链和列车间结构性晚点传播两个方面对上述方法进行验证.结果表明,该方法简便易行、可操作性强,能够较准确地构建实际的列车晚点传播过程,有一定推广价值.

Paper first proposes a method for identifying delay propagation process between two trains and then puts forward an approach for reconstructing train delay propagation chains（trees）.A case study is conducted to test the proposed methods.The case study concerns one of the busiest railway lines in the Netherlands,＇Leiden-The Hague-Rotterdam-Dordrecht-Dordrecht South＇ with operations data recorded in February 2009.Topics considered are conflict/delay propagation chains and structural route conflicts.Results show that the proposed methods are effective and easy to implement,which yields great potential for practical use in railway industries.