车票预售期内旅客购票请求到达过程分析与仿真

Analysis and simulation of passengers' ticket booking request arrival process in a ticket booking period

准确把握旅客购票请求到达的规律,并对该过程进行仿真,是实施列车动态票额分配和调整的基础.本文基于对历史售票数据的分析得出:旅客购票请求的到达过程属于非齐次泊松过程,每个购票请求的票额数量是一个离散的随机数,因此,旅客的购票过程是一个复合非齐次泊松过程.通过对"Thinning"方法进行改进,采用分段"Thinning"方法对该过程进行仿真,结果表明,该方法产生的旅客购票请求的到达过程与实际观测到的旅客购票请求的到达过程符合率达92%.

Passengers＇ travel demand which is derived from fully understanding of passengers＇ tickets booking process and simulation is the basic of dynamic tickets allocation and adjustment.Based on the analysis of passengers＇ history ticket booking records,this paper concludes that passengers＇ tickets booking requests follow a non-homogenous Poisson process,however,the number of tickets for each request is a discrete stochastic number,therefore,passengers＇ tickets booking process follows a compound non-homogeneous Poisson process.A simulation procedure is proposed with the method of segmental thinning,and the simulation results show that the coincidence of passenger ticket request arrival process between simulation and the observation is up to 92%.