印度块菌在未来气候变化情景下的空间分布模式——以云南省为例

Future Distribution of Tuber indicum under Climate Change Scenarios——A Case Study in Yunnan Province

以印度块菌(Tuber indicum) 丰产区云南省为例,利用地理信息系统和物种分布模型,并通过影响印度块菌分布的主要环境因子和气候因子,共同模拟现在及未来生境分布模式。结果表明结合环境因子和气候因子,在建模过程中能提高模型预测准确度,在几类物种分布模型中,MAXENT 模型具有最优的拟合效果。在大的空间尺度上,年降水,最湿季度降水,最冷月份最低温、地貌类型及土壤类型对印度块菌的生境分布影响最大。此外,在模型模拟的A2和B2未来气候变化情景下,印度块菌未来的新增生境均呈北上趋势,且 B2 情景下生境的适生程度低于 A2 情景。

In order to facilitate conservation of forest products, a case study focused on monitoring the distribution trend of an economic mushroom, Tuber indicum, was conducted in Yunnnan province. Geographic Information System and species distribution models were employed to establish both current potential habitat and a future projection of T.indicum habitat, through main environmental and climate variables. Results confirmed that combining environmental and climatic factors in the model building process could greatly increase model accuracy. Among tested species distribution models, MAXENT showed the highest performance. At a large geo-spatial scale, annual precipitation during the wettest quarter, minimum temperature during the coldest month, geomorphology and soil types played the most significant roles in determining T.indicum distribution. Our future projection showed T.indicum shifting northward under both modeled climate change scenarios (A2 and B2), with the B2 scenario having a lower degree of habitat suitability.