基于层次分析法的矿井突水风险评价

Risk Assessment of Mine Water Inrush Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

为了对矿井突水事故风险进行科学合理的评价,对矿井的突水事故风险进行有效的识别,在分析和归纳矿井突水影响因素的基础之上,建立了矿井突水事故风险评价指标体系。运用层次分析法确立各项指标的权重,采用专家打分法对各项指标进行逐一打分,得到各项指标的均值,最后依据评分表计算出评价结果。通过案例进行验证,结果表明,该方法可以提高矿井突水风险评价的准确性和有效性,较为符合客观实际。

In order to carry out scientific and rational risk evaluation on mine water inrush and to effectively identify the mine water inrush risk,and based on analysis and synthesis of the factors of mine water inrush risk,a reasonable mine water inrush risk evaluation system was set up.The weight of each factor is established by analytic hierarchy process（AHP）.Then scoring each factor by experts,the average score of each factor is got.Finally,the evaluation result is obtained from the above average scores.The method was validated by an appraisal example,and the result showed that the method could improve the accuracy and availability of risk assessment of mine water inrush,and is more in line with the reality.