新型甲型H1N1流感症状持续时间及其影响因素分析

The Analysis of Influenza A(H1N1) Duration of Symptoms and Its Influencing Factors

目的估计新型甲型H1N1流感症状持续时间并分析其影响因素,为新型甲型H1N1流感的防控提供决策参考。方法利用来源于一次封闭环境下的新型甲型H1N1流感暴发数据,采用失效数据的参数生存分析模型,对新型甲型H1N1流感的症状持续时间进行估计,并分析其影响因素。结果与指数分布、对数正态分布、伽玛分布比较,威布尔分布为更适合本研究的参数分布。新型甲型H1N1流感平均症状持续时间为3.25天,95%可信区间为(2.95,3.54)天,87.29%病例症状持续时间持续7天,95%的病例症状持续时间9.11天。广泛探索了47个可能的影响因素,单因素分析时发现性别、症状种类数等19个因素对症状持续时间有影响,多因素分析发现性别、症状种类数等9个因素进入多因素生存分析方程。结论生存分析的参数模型能较好地描述新型甲型H1N1流感症状持续时间的特点。

Objective To estimate duration of symptoms of Pandemic Influenza A（H1N1） and to explore the influencing factors.Methods Data from a Pandemic Influenza A（H1N1） outbreak in a closed environment was analyzed with parametric survival analysis model to estimate Pandemic Influenza A（H1N1） duration of symptoms,describe its characteristics,and explore the influencing factors.Results Weibull distribution is more suitable for the study of duration of symptoms of Pandemic Influenza A（H1N1） than Exponential distribution,lognormal distribution and gamma distribution.The median of duration of symptoms of Pandemic Influenza A（H1N1） is 3.25 days,and 95% CI of median is（2.95,3.54） days.In 47 possible factors,there are 19 factors which affect the duration of symptoms,including gender and Number of symptoms et al.Conclusion Parametric survival analysis model can describe the characteristics of duration of symptoms of Pandemic Influenza A（H1N1） perfectly.