新疆居民消费、固定资产投资与经济增长的动态关系——基于VAR模型的实证分析

On the Dynamic Relationship among Household Consumption,Fixed Assets Investment and Economic Growth in Xinjiang——empirical analysis based on VAR model

利用向量自回归(VAR)模型及其他分析工具,以时间序列数据为基础,探讨新疆居民消费、固定资产投资与经济增长之间的动态关系具有现实意义。实证分析表明:新疆居民消费、固定资产投资与经济增长存在长期稳定的协整关系及单向的因果关系;居民消费、固定资产投资对经济增长呈较大且持续的正向影响;固定资产投资对经济增长贡献最大,随着时间的持续,居民消费的贡献将逐步赶上固定资产投资的贡献;从长期看,固定资产投资对经济增长推动力最大,居民消费对经济增长推动作用较小。因此,若要使其经济得到长远发展,必须采取增加固定资产投资以及提高居民收入以获得更多消费的若干对策。

It is significant to discuss the dynamic relationship among household consumption, fixed assets investment and economic growth in Xinjiang based on time series data by using VAR model and other analysis tools. Empirical analysis indicates that there are the co-integration and the one-way causal relationships among them. Household consumption and fixed assets investment make a great and constant positive influence on economic growth. Among the relationships, fixed assets investment contributes the most to the growth, and the contribution of household consumption will go after that of fixed assets investment. From long term, fixed assets investment is the biggest driving force to economic growth, whereas, household consumption makes less effect on the growth. Therefore, in order to make 10ng term development, it is necessary to adopt series methods including increasing the fixed assets investment and enhancing the income of citizens.