贫信息下海洋经济周期波动监测预警:景气指标归类

The research on monitoring and warning of marine business cycle fluctuation under lacking information:boom index classification

论文阐述了国内外经济周期波动理论的发展历程,指出了海洋经济周期波动监测预警研究的迫切性,证明了灰色系统理论是研究贫信息下的海洋经济景气指标归类难点问题的有效方法,并使用该方法对从海洋经济总量、海洋经济结构、海洋经济效益和海洋经济可持续性四个方面构建的包含27个指标的指标体系进行了实证分析,得到我国海洋经济景气指标的先行、同步以及滞后指标,为海洋经济周期波动监测预警的进一步研究奠定了基础。

Through the description of the development process of business cycle fluctuation theory both at home and abroad, the paper points out the urgency of the research on monitoring and warning of marine business cycle fluctuation monitoring, proves that the grey system theory is a kind of effective method to overcome the problem about boom index classification of the Marine business under poor information, and puts the new method into the empirical analysis based on indexes system including 27 indexes which is divided into four aspects such as marine business output, marine business structure, marine business benefits and the marine business sustainable. In conclusion, the paper gets leading indexes, synchronous indexes and lags indexes of marine business boom indexes in China and lays the foundation for further research on monitoring and warning Marine business cycle fluctuation.