2010年夏季大连溢油事件期间北黄海漂流浮标移动轨迹的数值模拟

The simulation of trajectory of the floatings in the North Yellow Sea during the oil spilling event in Dalian in summer of 2010

采用双层单向嵌套的普林斯顿大学海洋模式(POM)对2010年夏季大连溢油事件期间北黄海释放的表层漂流浮标的移动轨迹进行了数值模拟,模拟结果与实测轨迹基本吻合,模拟的表层流速纬向和经向分量与观测数据的相关系数在两观测点分别达到了0.6548,0.3659和0.4836,0.3961,均明显大于95%置信区间下的显著性临界值0.1946,但是模拟的浮标移动速度明显慢于观测。模拟出的速度时间序列在变化趋势上与实测吻合良好,但是流速数值相对于观测整体上偏小。该数值模拟系统能够较准确地模拟出2010年大连溢油事件期间北黄海的流场及漂流浮标的运动趋势,为北黄海的环境预警、灾害评估等相关研究提供有益的参考。

A twice nested circulation model system on the basis of the Princeton ocean model（POM） was set up to simulate the satellite tracked surface floating trajectory during oil spilling event in Dalian in summer of 2010,and the model result was compared with observation data.It was indicated that the simulated trajectory agreed well with the observations while the simulated movement of the tracer was a little slower than that of the observed movement.The correlation coefficient of the zonal and meridianal component of surface velocity between simulation and observation were 0.6548,0.3659 and 0.4836,0.3961 respectively in two observation location,which were all greater than critical correlation coefficient（0.1946） with a 95% of credibility interval.The simulated velocity time series agreed well with the observation in variability but smaller in value.It was suggested that the model system in this study played well in simulating the ARGOS trajectory in the North Yellow Sea during the oil spilling event in Dalian in 2010,which was helpful to the environmental estimation and early warning.