中日韩自贸区的可行性与经济周期规律

Analysis of the Feasibility of Constructing China,Japan and South Korea Free Trade Area and the Rule of Economic Cycle

自2002年中日韩自由贸易区的构想提出以来,学界和决策部门对其建立的可行性仍持怀疑态度。本研究率先采用惩罚性样条滤波(Penalized Spline Filter)对中日韩实际产出变量进行分解,计算了周期项的相关系数和滚动相关性并检验了格兰杰因果关系,探讨建立三国自贸区的可行性。实证研究结果表明:中日、中韩间同期相关度低,但日韩间具有显著的同期相关性,并自1998年趋强,三者之间无格兰杰因果关系。因此,笔者认为从经济周期的协动性角度来看,建立中日韩自由贸易区的时机尚未成熟。建议可以先尝试建立日韩自由贸易区,逐步推进中日韩自贸区进程。

The feasibility of constructing China,Japan and South Korea Free Trade Area has been questioned in the academia and policy departments since the conception was put forward in 2002.This paper utilizes the Penalized Spline Filter approach newly proposed to calculate the coefficient of cycle＇s components of the three countries＇ output series,while Granger test is also performed to confirm the feasibility of constructing FTA.The result shows that the correlations between China and Japan,China and South Korea are rather weak,but there does exist a significant contemporaneous correlation between Japan and South Korea,which has been increasing since 1998.From the economic cycle comovement perspective,thus,we conclude that it is too early to construct FTA among these countries,but Japan and South Korea FTA can first try to be constructed and then establish China,Japan and South Korea FTA.