中国老年人心率参考值与地理环境的因子分析

The factor analysis between the values of old people′s heart rate and geographical factors

目的揭示中国老年人心率参考值的地理分布规律,为制定中国老年人心率参考值的统一标准提供科学依据。方法收集了中国50个市(县)级医院和有关研究单位及高等院校测定的3 750例健康老年人心率数据,应用SPSS17.0统计软件对数据进行处理,运用相关分析、因子分析及GIS软件,研究老年人心率与海拔、年日照时数、年平均气温等7项地理因素指标之间的关系。结果中国老年人心率参考值与地理因素之间有显著的相关关系。利用因子分析及回归分析推导出一个回归方程:=80.22+0.000 964 1X1-0.000 645 0X2+0.017 99X3-0.003 782X4+0.000 212 8X5-0.135 2X6-1.369 6X7±0.433(F=9.317,P=0.000)。在以上回归方程中,是心率参考值(次/min),X1是海拔高度(m)、X2是年日照时数(h)、X3是年平均气温(℃)、X4是年平均相对湿度(%)、X5是年降水量(ml)、X6是气温年较差(℃)、X7是年平均风速(m/s),0.433是剩余标准差。借助GIS软件中的地统分析模块,通过克里格(kriging)插值法精确地内插出中国老年人心率参考值的空间趋势分布图。结论如果已知某地的海拔高度、年日照时数、年平均气温、年平均相对湿度、年降水量、气温年较差和年平均风速,可以根据此回归方程计算,获得该地的老年人心率参考值。同时也可以根据中国老年人心率参考值的空间趋势分布图估得中国任何一地的老年人心率参考值。

Objective To reveal the geographical distributing rule and supply a scientific basis for unifying the normal reference val-ues of heart rate of Chinese old people in various region of China. Methods The normal reference values of heart rate of 3 750 Chinese healthy old people were collected and studied, which were from 50 cities＇ hospitals, the study units and high schools. With the static analysis software of SPSS, using correlation analysis, factor analysis and GIS software, the relationship among the reference value of heart rate and the geographical factors, including altitude（ X1 ）, annual sunshine duration（ X2 ）, annual mean temperature（ X3 ）, annual mean relative humidity （ X4 ）, and annual precipitation （ X5 ）, annual temperature range （ X6 ） and annual average wind speed （ X7 ）, were analyzed. Results There was a significant correlation between the normal reference heart rate and the geographical factors in China. Applying the methods of factor analysis and regressive analysis, one regression equation was inferred：Y = 80. 22 ＋ 0. 000 964 1X1 -0. 000 645 0X2 ＋ 0. 017 99X3 - 0. 003 782X4 ＋0. 000 212 8X5 -0. 135 2X6 - 1. 369 6X7 ＋0. 433（F =9. 317 ,P =0. 000） o During the regression equation, Y was the nor-mal reference heart rate （b/m）, X1 （m）, X2 （h）, X3 （ ℃ ）, X4 （ % ）, X5 （ ml）, X6 （ ℃ ） , X7 （m/s）, 0. 433 was the residual standard de-viation. With the aid of geostatistical analysis module of GIS spatial analysis and Kriging interpolation method, the geographical distribution map of the reference value of heart rate in Chinese healthy old people was interpolated. Conclusions If geographical factors of a particular area are obtained, the heart rate reference value of Chinese old people in this area could be calculated using this model and the normal heart rate reference values of Chinese old people anywhere in China could be obtained from geography distribution figure. The reference value of heart rate could also be obtained by the geography trend-surface distribution map of an area.