无偏灰色模糊马尔可夫链预测方法研究及其应用

Research of Unbiased Gray Fuzzy Markov Chain Method and its Application

针对传统灰色马尔可夫预测模型存在灰色偏差与抗干扰能力弱的局限性,将无偏灰色理论与模糊集合理论引入预测模型,提出无偏灰色模糊马尔可夫链预测模型.同时利用该模型对甘肃省人均GDP进行预测,经分析表明,其结果的准确性和合理性明显优于传统的灰色马尔可夫模型.

In this paper,the improvement issues of Gray - Markov chain model was studied,it may eliminate the grey bias and improve anti-jamming performance of the standard Grey-Markov forecasting model , the unbiased grey theory and fuzzy classification are introduced into the Grey-Markov forecasting model and a new method of named the Unbiased Grey-Fuzzy-Markov Chain Method is proposed. Finally, we apply the model to the problem of the per capita GDP of Gansu Province, the accuracy and reasonableness of the result is significantly better than the traditional Gray - Markov model.