中国通货膨胀福利成本城乡差异及动态调节机制

Differences and Dynamic Interaction between the Urban and Rural Welfare Cost of Inflation in China

本文利用消费者剩余方法分别估计了中国城乡通货膨胀福利成本,并利用误差修正模型(VEC)和改进的信息共享模型(MIS)分析了城乡通货膨胀福利成本动态调整机制。根据估计结果,本文认为城乡通货膨胀动态调整的过程十分缓慢,缩小城乡通货膨胀福利成本差距不能完全依靠市场力量,应该充分发挥宏观经济政策的作用,并提出缩小城乡通货膨胀福利成本的政策建议。

Based on Bailey＇s consumer surplus approach, this paper estimates the urban and rural welfare cost of infla- tion in China respectively. Furthermore, employing vector error - correction model and modified information share model, a dynamic analysis of interaction mechanics between the urban welfare cost and its rural counterpart is made. The analytic re- suits show the process to equilibrium is too slow to reduce the gap between the urban and rural welfare cost of inflation by market power only. As a result, macroeconomic policies play an important role in reducing the gap. In the last section, a conclusion is made and a few suggestions are proposed to solve the problem.