中国非寿险服务产出核算方法改革研究

The Study on Improvement of Accounting Method of the Output of Non-life Insurance

目前中国计算非人寿保险服务产出的方法与SNA(1993)的方法原理类似,在巨大灾难发生时,计算的非寿险服务产出可能为负数。基于SNA(2008)的修订思路,以广东省数据为基础,分别采用会计核算方法(按照成本费用加期望利润的形式)以及期望方法(运用引入自变量x的ARIMAX模型形式)核算了非人寿保险服务总产出,研究了采用赔款预提基金方法计算调整后已生索赔的方法,认为采用直接计算法核算非人寿保险服务产出适合中国实际情况。

China consult SNA（1993） when accounting the output of Non-life insurance,which means that,the output might become minus if a catastrophe occurred.According to the revised ideas of SNA（2008）,this paper measures the output of Non-life insurance with the Accounting Method（cost plus expectation profit） and Expectation Method（ARIMAX random time series model） based on Guangdong actual data.In addition,it measures the ＂adjusted claims incurred＂ with Accrued Compensation Method which is a beneficial attempt to improve accounting method of Non-life insurance output in China.