全球通货膨胀的驱动因素与非对称冲击分析——基于扩展的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的实证分析

Asymmetric Influence of Global Inflation and Its Driving Factors: An Empirical Analysis based on the Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve

将全球流动性、全球工资水平、美元汇率、国际资源品价格、全球经济增长等因素引入具有微观基础的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型中,利用状态空间模型实证分析了各变量对全球通货膨胀影响的变动状况,分析了美国和中国CPI的驱动因素。结果表明:全球流动性是全球通货膨胀产生的最主要驱动因素,其次是美元汇率、全球经济增长和国际资源品价格,三者具有持续且稳定的影响力。中国需求因素影响逐渐增强。全球工资水平对通货膨胀的影响不明显。美国CPI的重要推动因素是居民可支配收入,中国CPI的重要推动因素是经济增长率和国际资源品价格。

This article puts global liquidity,global wage levels,the dollar exchange rate,international resources,goods prices,global economic growth and other factors into a micro-foundation of the new Keynesian Phillips curve model and empirical analysis using state-space model of each variable on the global currency changes in conditions affecting expansion and comparative analysis of the United States and China＇s CPI drivers.The results show that： the global mobility is the main global drivers of inflation,the following are the exchange rate of dollar,global economic growth and international resource goods prices,the three factors have continuing and stable influence.Gradually increased Chinese demand factors,the global impact of wage levels is not obvious.An important driving factor in the US CPI is disposable income,while economic growth and international resources goods is are important driving factors in China＇s CPI.