美国经济失衡对日元汇率和日本经济的影响

Impact of U.S.Economy Imbalance on Yen's Exchange Rate and Japan's Economy

自20世纪70年代初期以来,日元兑美元就开始持续升值。传统汇率理论对此不能有效解释。本文从政治经济学视角分析了美国经济失衡对日元汇率的影响。美国经济内部失衡或者外部失衡对日元汇率的影响都是不确定的。但是,当美国经济内外部同时失衡时,日元将会感受到升值压力。基于二值因变量模型的实证结果支持了上述结论。当美国经济内外部同时失衡时,日元面临升值压力的概率就会提高53个百分点。持续的升值压力降低了日本的利率,导致了通货膨胀和泡沫经济。低利率和泡沫经济的破灭一起使日本经济在20世纪90年代中后期陷入了流动性陷阱。

Since early in the 1970s, the exchange rate of Yen/Dollar had been kept constantly increased, which could not be effectively explained by traditional exchange rate theories. This paper analyses the impact of U. S. economy imbalance on yen＇s exchange rate from the point of view of political economics. The conclu- sion shows that the impact on Yen＇s exchange rate is uncertain whether U.S. economy imbalance is inner im- balance or outer imbalance, however, when U.S. economy internal and external imbalances exist simultane- ously, Yen is likely to be confronted with appreciation pressures. Based on the binary dependent variable （BDV） model, the empirical results support the conclusion mentioned above. When U.S. economy internal and external imbalances exist simultaneously, the probability of Yen be confronted with the appreciation would rise up 53%. Sustainable appreciation pressures lower the exchange rate and lead to inflation and bubble e- conomy. In the mid and late 1990s, low exchange rate together with collapse of bubble economy pushed Japa- nese economy into the liquidity trap.