日本货物贸易模式背离倾向演进研究:1976～2011

On the Evolving Distortion of the Japanese Commodity Trade Patterns： 1976 ～ 2011

日本经济在进入稳定增长阶段后走上了一条出口导向型的经济发展道路。利用1976～2011年的SITC三位数分类产品的贸易数据,本研究根据产品的技术结构将其重新聚合为10大类别,进而深入分析了日本在各个产品类别上"净出口比率"、"对称的显示性比较优势指数"以及"贸易模式背离倾向指数"的静态分布和动态演进特征。在样本期间内,日本的货物进出口贸易普遍存在着净出口相对能力超出比较优势实际水平的贸易模式"正背离倾向"。在1985年"广场协议"和1986年"前川报告"后,日本的贸易模式开始明显地向均衡方向回复,但直至2011年,日本在绝大多数产品类别的贸易模式上仍然存在"正背离倾向"。本研究认为,对出口导向型经济发展方式的调整难以一蹴而就,并且是一个长期而痛苦的转型过程。

Japan had switched to an export -oriented development pattern since its stable growth stage. Using SITC 3 -digit annual trade data covering 1976 to 2011, this study regroups the traded products into 10 catego- ries according to their technology content. Further analysis focuses on the distribution and evolution of the in- dices of “net export ratio”, “revealed symmetric comparative advantage” and “propensity of trade pattern dis- tortion”. Evidences show a strong tendency of positive “propensity of trade pattern distortion”, indicating that the Japanese net export capability has been largely exceeding the comparative advantages. After 1985 Plaza Accord and 1986 Maekawa Report, the Japanese trade patterns have undergone an apparent adjustment to e- quilibrium. By 2011, nevertheless, Japan exhibits positive “propensity of trade pattern distortion” in most product categories. The paper proposes that the adjustment of the export - oriented development pattern usually involves progressive and painful structural transition.