论中国经济增长与波动的新态势

On the New Trend of Growth and Fluctuations in Chinese Economy

本文指出 ,近年来 ,在亚洲金融危机和国际金融动荡的大背景下 ,“软着陆”之后的中国经济仍保持了较快的增长 ,但经济增长率已连续几年呈下滑之势。究其原因 ,是因为当前中国经济运行正处在体制转轨的深化期、长时间高速增长后的调整期和由全面短缺到阶段性买方市场的转变期 ,三大转换的交叠重合使经济回升的难度明显加大。作者认为 ,经过这一轮重大调整 ,中国经济未来增长与波动将可能出现“缓起缓落”与“长起短落”

Against the broader background of Asian financial crisis and international financial destabilization over recent years China's economy has maintained a relative quick growth after the successful “soft landing”. However, the growth rate has been on the decrease for several successive years. The reasons for the downward growth rate are that the economic operation in China is now undergoing the deepening of institutional restructuring, readjustment in the wake of long high speed growth and the transformation from all round shortage to buyers' market, all these factors have made economic resurgence more difficult. The author believes that after this round of fundamental readjustments a new situation of “slow rise and slow fall” and “long term rise and short term fall”will appear in China's economy.