中国居民消费函数的理论与验证

The Theory of Consumption Function of Chinese Residents and Its Verification

本文认为 ,西方的传统消费理论无法说明中国消费者的行为特征。中国居民消费行为有两个重要特点 ,一是居民的消费支出安排具有显著的阶段性 ,二是在其生命的不同阶段一般都存在一个特定的支出高峰以及一个相应的储蓄目标。文章根据上述特点 ,运用以选择理论为基础的分析方法来研究中国居民的消费行为 ,从而推导出一套符合中国国情的宏观消费函数 ,并根据实际统计数据作了检验 。

This paper examines households' consumption behavior in China. It emphasizes that the life cycle permanent income hypothesis cannot properly explain Chinese households' consumption. Taking into consideration the characteristics of the Chinse economy, a consumption function is derived on the basis of choice theory. The paper attempts to conceptualize the influence of cultural and institutional factors on the determination of households' consumption in China. This paper is based on a previous paper entitled “The consumption Function in the Chinese Economy” by Yu Yongding written in 1993 as a working paper circulated by the University of the West of England. The current paper had taken into consideration the new developments of the Chinese economy since the original paper was written, and added a new section of empirical testing. The econometric regression found that in China the single most important factor determining consumption demand is households' inflation expectations. The second important factor is the price level. The real income and real wealth are the third and fourth important factors respectively. The influence of the interest rate on consumption is found very small. The results fit in with Chinese households' current consumption behavior surprisingly well.