黄鼠鼠疫流行的预报研究

Study on the Forecast of Plague Epizootic of Spermophilus dauricus

目的 :探讨黄鼠鼠疫流行的预测方法。方法 :采用逐步回归分析方法 ,分别建立当年和次年的预报模型。结果 :流行强度可分 4级 ,当年拟合率为 93.33% ,次年预报准确率达71.4 3%。结论 :黄鼠鼠疫的流行与黄鼠体染蚤率和黄鼠洞干蚤指数有关 。

Using the collected data of 1984-1998 in Inner Mongolia, multi variate linear regression analysis is conducted to forecast the prevalence of epizootic plague in Spermophilus dauricus . Two primary factors and 2 mathematical models are given Y= 0.8081 - 0.0190 X 3+ 0.8682 X 6(1), Y= 1.4521 - 0.0333 X 3+ 1.0133 X 6(2). The epidemic intensities are obtaimed.