我国原油进口来源改进策略分析

Analysis of Improving China Crude Oil Import Source Strategy

考虑到进口来源多元化风险和来源地政治风险两个因素,将原油进口源分为五大地区创建进口来源风险综合指数,利用该指数,在2003～2010年我国实际五大进口来源份额的基础上,通过设置将政治风险较高、采购量较大的中东、非洲地区的采购份额转移到政治风险相对较低、进口份额相对较小的美洲、欧洲/前苏联和亚太地区的12种策略,并对12种策略进行分析对比,指出不同转移策略对改进我国原油进口来源策略的作用。

By taking the risk of crude oil import sources diversity and sources＇ political risk into considerations, this paper divides crude oil import sources into five areas, so as to create a composite index of risk. And then, based on China＇s actual oil purchase from 2003 to 2010, it uses this composite index to set up such 12 strategies as assuming a share of oil purchase to be transferred from the Middle East and Africa featured by higher political risk and larger proportion to be purchased to the European, America/ Former Soviet Union and the Asia-pacific region with lower political risk and smaller share of oil purchase. The paper makes a comparison among these strategies, and also analyzes their effects. And finally it points out their different roles of transfer strategies to improve crude oil import source strategy in our country.