浙江沿海防护林马尾松毛虫的预测预报模型

The prediction model of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker in coastal shelterbelt of Zhejiang

运用Statistical Analysis System(SAS)软件的原理和方法,根据SAS软件的相关性分析及逐步回归分析,选取仙居县1982年4月～2006年3月与马尾松毛虫Dendrolimus punctatus Walker虫口密度关系密切的的气象因子作为变量、1983～2006年的虫口密度作为因变量,建立沿海防护林马尾松毛虫虫口密度与气象因子的预测预报模型。方程经拟和性检验,其历史符合率均在85%以上;用2007～2011年的相关数据进行测报检验,除受自然灾害影响较为严重的年份外,发生情况与预报结果的相对误差较小。

Used the principles and methods of SAS software, and according to the correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis. We selected the relevant meteorological factors as the variables, and the insect population density as the dependent variables from 1983 to 2006 years, established the forecasting model of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker＇s insect population density with meteorological factors in coastal shelterbelt. The equation by tested by fitting its history compliance rate above 85%. According to the prediction test, in addition to the seriously affected by natural disasters, the relative error of occurrence and prediction results were small.