数字保存项目的投资时机研究

On Investment Timing Option for Digital Preservation Project

数字保存项目的投资存在着众多可以延迟的因素,不同时机投资获取的效益可能很不一样,因此寻求最佳投资时机是项目的一个重要决策。在假设投资和预期收益都遵从几何布朗运动模型的前提下,本文建立了数字保存项目投资机会价值模型,分析了投资机会收益率,探讨了影响投资机会选择的重要参数,并结合具体实例计算了投资机会价值和最佳投资规则,得出了投资时机选择对数字保存项目价值具有重大影响的结论。

There are many factors that may delay the investment for digital preservation project. Invest- ment in different timing option results in different benefit. So, seeking the optimal investment timing op- tion is a very important decision. Based on the assumption that both investment and benefit follow geomet- ric Brownian motion, this article sets up a model for the value of investment opportunity for digital preser- vation project, analyses the rate of return on the investment opportunity, discusses some important parame- ters affecting investment timing option, calculates the value of investment opportunity and ment rule basing two cases studies, and concludes that the investment timing option has ence on the value of digital preservation project. optimal invest- important influ-