对外贸易技术效应与中国工业碳排放——基于产业关联的视角

Technical Effects of International Trade and Industrial Carbon Emissions in China——From the Perspective of Industrial Linkages

本文利用中国34个工业行业2001～2010年面板数据,运用投入产出表构建进口贸易技术水平溢出、出口贸易技术水平溢出、出口贸易技术后向溢出以及进口贸易技术前向溢出四种指标,以检验对外贸易技术效应对工业碳排放的影响。按行业碳排放强度分组,估算了研发投入强度、企业所有制结构等反映吸收能力的行业特征在对外贸易技术溢出的碳排放效应中的作用。全行业的研究表明,出口贸易技术后向溢出对工业碳减排具有显著的促进作用,而进口贸易技术水平溢出对工业碳减排存在明显的负面影响。分行业的研究表明,高碳排放行业对外贸易的技术效应对工业碳排放影响显著,而低碳排放行业影响系数不明显,行业特征对对外贸易技术效应的影响主要集中在高碳排放行业。

Carbon emissions are mainly from industrial sectors, so industrial sectors are facing increasing pressure. With the expansion of international trade scale, what will technical effect of international trade on carbon emissions？ As to the technical spillovers of international trade, which are the main channels that benefit the industrial carbon abatement, whether there is a difference between the technical effects of international trade in different industries？ This article firstly describes the influence mechanism of technical effects of international trade on industrial carbon emissions, and then constructs the indexes of technology horizontal spillovers from import trade and export trade, technology backward spillovers from export trade and technology lorward spillovers from import trade based on the input-output tables, and examines the technical effects of international trade on the industrial carbon abatement based on the panel data from 34 Chinese industrial sectors in the period from 2001 to 2010. The article makes grouping tests according to the category of industrial carbon emissions intensity, and then evaluates the influence of these industry characters such as research and development intensity, system structure and carbon emission intensity representing the absorptive capability on the effects of technology spillovers from international trade on the industrial carbon abatement. Results from the whole 34 industries show that, technology backward spillovers from export trade have significant promotion effects on the industrial carbon abatement, but technology forward spillovers from import trade have obvious negative effects on the industrial carbon abatement. The technical effects of international trade in high carbon dioxide emission sectors are significant, but the influence coefficiences are unapparent in low carbon dioxide. Through the analysis on the influence of the industrial characters, the influence of the industrial character indexes on the technical effects of international trade focus on the high carbon dioxide emission sectors. The increase in the research and development investment and the proportion of the non State-rnn enterprises suppresses technology horizontal spillovers from import trade, and the growth in the proportion of the non State-run enterprises has obvious negative effects on technology backward spillovers from export trade. In conclusion, it brings forward solutions as bellows： firstly, Chinese government should encourage and improve localization purchase of export enterprises, and promote the linkage between the host supply enterprises and export-oriented enterprises. To be more specific, it should be paid attention to enlarge the export scale of high carbon dioxide emission sectors, and maintain the export scale of low carbon dioxide emission sectors. Secondly, the research and development investment is the most fundamental and active way to achieve technology innovation, consequently, Chinese government should increase the domestic research and development investment, especially increase the research and development which is matching the foreign research and development stock contained in the import goods, in order to take full advantage of technical effect of international trade on industrial carbon abatement. Thirdly, Chinese government should improve the industrial internal structure, and increase the industry capital intensity appropriately. Finally, many competitions are low cost competitions with the lack of government environmental regulation, which do harm to the transnational transfer and diffusion of carbon emission abatement technology, therefore, in the long run, Chinese government should strengthen the environmental regulation intensity step by step, which is the key to the carbon dioxide emission continuous abatement.