人民币实际汇率波动与中国对美进出口问题的实证探究

Empirical Research of the Effect of RMB's Real Exchange Rate Volatility on the Balance of Trade Between China and USA

使用1999年至2009年人民币对美元实际汇率及中美间进出口数据,对人民币实际汇率波动对中美贸易产生的造成影响进行实证分析.人民币实际汇率的波动与中国对美进出口间不存在长期的协整关系,人民币汇率变化对中国对美的贸易收支差额影响十分有限.在行业层面,人民币实际汇率的波动与中国对美主要产品出口也不存在长期的协整关系.

This paper estimates the effect of RMB＇s real exchange rate volatility on the balance of trade between China and the USA by monthly date from 1999 to 2009. The result of analysis shows that the RMB＇s real exchange rate volatility has no long tern co-integration relationship with export and import, and the effect of RMB＇s real exchange rate volatility on the balance of trade is limited.