当前和未来五年中国宏观经济形势及对策分析

China's Macroeconomic Situation and Policy Options: Current Concerns and Prospects for the Next Five Years

当前中国经济处在企稳回升过程中,但基础尚不牢固。2013年增长有望超过8%,略好于2012年。展望未来5～10年,我国经济已经从过去30余年的"结构性增速"逐步转向"结构性减速"轨道,潜在增长率水平将会趋缓至"七上八下"格局。根据对GDP的非农就业弹性和劳动力供给之间关系的分析,2013-2017年,我国经济增长若保持在7%左右的水平,就能保障城乡就业稳定。这意味着,未来5～10年,我国宏观经济运行的目标,应当从重经济增长速度,切实转变到全面提升质量、微观经济效率、竞争力和技术创新水平上,我国经济运行的指导方针应从"平稳较快"转变到"稳速增效"上来。相应地,我国宏观经济政策的重点,应当从侧重需求管理,转变到全面供给管理上。

China＇s economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections,the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might he over 8 percent and higher than the rate for this year. In the next 5--10 years,the accelerating growth trends seem to reach an end, and China＇s growth tends to step into a new phase characterized by the structural deceleration. We predict that the potential growth rate might fall into a range of 7~8 percent per year. Moreover, according to the estimates on the non-agricultural employment elasticity and labor force supply, in 2013 -- 2017, a 7 -- percent annual growth is sufficient to achieve the full employment of urban and rural people. It implies that instead of the rapid growth rate , China＇s maeroeconomic objectives for the next 5--10 years should focus more on the development quality, which refers to the improvement in microeconomic efficiency, increasing competiveness and stimulating technological innovations. Accordingly, the policy concerns should shift from demand-side management to supply-side management.