对外贸易结构带动了产业结构升级吗?——基于半对数模型和结构效应的实证检验

Does the Structure of Foreign Trade Lead to the Upgrading of Industrial Structure?

在全球经济一体化和经济结构战略性调整的背景下,考察我国对外贸易结构对产业结构的带动作用具有重要价值。本文以对外贸易结构和产业结构的相关性分析为基础,基于半对数模型和结构效应就对外贸易结构对产业结构的带动作用进行了实证检验,结果表明:从两大类贸易产品对三次产业的影响来看,工业制成品的进出口有利于降低第一产业比重,提高第二产业比重,这是我国工业化由初期向中期跨越的特定时期工业化发展战略和对外贸易政策的体现;从结构效应的角度看,进出口结构效应对产业结构升级存在显著的正向影响,但其发挥作用存在一定的时滞。

With the background of the integration of the global economy and the strategic adjustment of the economic structure,to study the impetus function on industrial structure in China from structure of foreign trade is of great value.Based on the correlation analysis between structure of foreign trade and industrial structure,semi-log model and structure effect,this paper tests the function empirically.The results show that the trade of manufactured goods can decrease the portion of the first industry and increase that of the second industry,which is the reflection of industrial development strategy and the foreign trade policy from the early stage of industrialization to the middle stage in China.Besides,the import and export structure both have the positive effects on the industrial structure respectively,but with different degrees of a lagging effect.