“发展陷阱”入口的中国经济--“发展陷阱”形成机理分析

The Chinese Economy of the “Development Trap" Entrance ——Formation Mechanism Analysis of the “Development Trap"

几乎所有的追赶型国家在经济发展达到一定水平后,都避免不了落入发展陷阱的结局,只是有的国家能够较顺利地走出,有的国家则难以自拔。追赶型国家落入发展陷阱,是它们发展到一定水平后,高新技术产业无法应对更发达国家的围堵,传统产业无法应对更后进国家竞争的结果,同时也是它们在落入陷阱前一个较长时期出现以美元计量的增长率远远快于以本币计量的实际增长率,由此国际相对竞争力不断下降的结果。从企业整体和国家层面看,就是人均收入水平提高到一定程度后,在成本不断提高的同时,为追求生活品质改善而导致大量收入向发达国家转移,由此收支出现严重逆差和国家外债不断增加的结果。中国目前所处的长波位置和国际环境,近十多年美元增长率快于实际增长率,企业整体收支不断恶化的现象,反映中国正处在发展陷阱的入口,并且该过程是不可逆转的。

Catching-up countries fall into the development trap is the result that after they developed to a certain level, the creative industries can＇t cope with the containment of the more developed countries and the traditional industries can＇t cope with the competition of the less developed countries. At the same time, it is also the result that at a longer period of time before they fall into the trap, the growth rate measured in dollar is much faster than the real growth rate measured in local currency and thus the international relative competitiveness constantly declines. From the enterprise as a whole and the national level, it is the result that after the level of per capita income increased to a certain extent, at the same time of the costs constantly increased, to pursuit the improvement of quality of life led to a substantial income transferred to the developed countries, thus resulted serious balance of payments deficit and nation external debt continuously increased. The long-wave location and the international environment of our country nowadays, the dollar growth rate faster than the actual growth rate in the nearly a decade years, the phenomenon of the overall balance of payments of the enterprises is deteriorating reflect that our country is just in the entrance of the development trap and the process is irreversible.