超主权国际货币运行的实证研究——模拟估值、汇率体系与绩效检验

Empirical Study of Super-sovereign International Currency ——Simulative Value Estimation, Exchange Rate System and Performance Test

2008年的国际金融危机暴露出当前国际货币体系的严重缺陷,关于超主权国际货币的讨论成为学术界的热点。超主权国际货币以美元、欧元、日元、英镑和人民币等五种货币为基础,每种货币的权重取决其所属经济体的国内生产总值、国际储备和对外贸易总额,并采用加权平均计算的方法构建。通过对2006—2010年间超主权国际货币的模拟运算及计量分析表明,超主权国际货币体系具有以下三点优势:(1),相对于以美元为核心的国际货币体系,超主权国际货币体系具有更稳定的汇率体系,即各种主要货币对世元汇率的变异系数与汇率偏离度更小;(2),在超主权国际货币体系下,外汇衍生品的交易量会下降,从而导致因外汇交易所付出的佣金支付金额减少,即国际经济活动的交易成本会降低;(3),在超主权国际货币体系下,以石油为代表的大宗商品的价格波动会减缓,从而减小了世界经济发展的不确定性。

International financial crisis in 2008 reveals the severe fault of current international monetary system, super-sovereign currency becomes an academic research hotspot. Super-sovereign international currency is composed of U. S. dollar, euro, yen, pound sterling and RMB with weighted average calculation. The weight of each currency depends on GDP, international reserve, value of foreign trade of respective country. Super-sovereign international monetary system has three advantages： first, it owns more stable exchange rate system other than US dollar-cored international monetary system; second, with super-sovereign international monetary system, the trade volume of foreign exchange derivatives would descend and it leads to reduce the payment of brokerage, which means transaction cost of economic activity; third, the fluctuation of commodity price, which means the uncertainty of world economy developing, would slow down due to super-sovereign international monetary system.