计划生育政策导致人口逆淘汰?——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

Has Family Planning Policy Led to Population Adverse Selection?——Analysis Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

计划生育政策是否造成了中国的人口逆淘汰,是一个争议很大的话题。通过对1988—2003年中国中学生省级面板数据的分析发现,计划生育政策的实施并没有导致中国人口逆淘汰,但是在不同的计划生育政策区域及城乡之间造成这种状况的原因不尽相同。城乡之间不存在人口逆淘汰,主要是由于城市化改变了中学生的城乡分布。在不同的计划生育政策地区没有出现人口逆淘汰现象的原因则是:在实行过紧的独生子女政策和一孩半政策地区新生人口太少,即使教育资源增多,中学生数量也上不去;在实行二孩及以上政策的地区虽然有足够的孩子数量,但由于社会经济欠发达,中学生数量也同样上不去;而在实行独女可生二孩政策与二孩政策混合的地区,则由于实行相对较为宽松的计划生育政策,在社会经济发展的推动下,中学生数量显著增加。从全国范围看,总体人口素质的提高抑制了人口逆淘汰现象的出现。

Whether Chinese Family Planning policy has caused the population adverse selection against the elimination, has been a topic of debate. Based on analysis of Family Planning policies on the pro- vincial urban and rural China 1988--2003, we found Family Planning did not lead to population adverse selection of China＇s population, but among different family planning policy areas, the reasons are not entirely the same. Between urban and rural areas, mainly urbanization has changed the distribution of urban and rural middle school students. In the only-one-child policy area and of one-and-a-half-child policy area, the number of children is too small, and in two-child policy and the two-children policy mix of regional policy, although these policy areas have sufficient number of children, but because of social and economic underdevelopment, population quality does not increase, while only-one-daughter- can-have-another-child policy and two-children policy mixed areas has a number of school-age popula- tion, with the social and economic development, the ability to improve the quality of the children, reach the optimization of quantity and quality of population.