基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法

Risk analysis method of large-scale space development project based on multi-agent technology

大型航天研发项目对于社会经济发展和国防安全有着重要影响,是国家重大工程中一类较为特殊的项目,而风险分析是大型航天研发项目按计划、高质量、低成本完成的重要保障。通过分析大型航天研发项目的特点、风险因素以及管理过程,结合Multi-Agent以及分布式项目管理的理论和技术,研究和提出了一种新的基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法,在此基础上针对具体项目进行了实验仿真,获取了项目的风险水平和关键风险因素,为航天研发项目风险管理与控制提供决策支持。

Large-scale space development project （LSDP） is a kind of project which possesses some special characteristics and is significant for the social economy development and national security. Risk analysis is an important guarantee to accomplish these projects designed with high quality and low cost. According to the characters, management process and risk factors of the LSDP, using the theory and technology of Muhi-Agent and Disturb Project Management, a new risk analysis method of LSDP based on Multi-Agent technology is proposed. It is applied to a large-scale space development project. The risk level of the project is evaluated and the key risk factors are identified. These results can provide decision information for the project risk control and management.