我国财政政策效果的实证分析——基于理性预期理论的FL模型

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in China-an Analysis of FL Model Based on Rational Expectation Theory

在理性预期理论的基础上,选用FL模型和BL模型进行对比,对我国实行的积极财政政策的有效性进行了实证研究。在FL模型中引入理性预期变量,对财政政策的效果进行了实证研究。模型的实证结果表明:经济主体的理性预期会影响到财政支出的效果,FL模型的财政支出对于民间消费具有负效应,而FL模型和BL模型都证明了持续的财政支出对民间投资有挤出效应,前者的影响更为明显。经济主体对将来的预期对经济增长和扩大需求起着非常重要的作用,因此改善经济主体的理性预期有助于提高财政政策的效果。

This article makes an empirical research into the dynamic effect of positive fiscal policies implemented in China by comparing FL model with BL model, based on rational expectation theory. To empirically explore the dynamic effect of fiscal policies, rational expectation variables were introduced into the FL model. The results show that the rational expectation of economic subjects will influence fiscal expenditure and that the fiscal expenditure of the FL model negatively influences private consumption; although both FL and BL models prove that continuing fiscal expenditure has an extrusion effect on private investment, the former shows a more noticeable influence.The future expectations of economic subjects play a very important role in economic growth and in domestic demand expansion, thus improving rational expectations of economic subjects aids the improvement of the effect of fiscal policies.