引入虚拟变量的我国医院床位配置变化与政策影响作用分析

Analysis of the Driving Hospital Bed Resources Driving and the Influence of Health Policy in Dummy Variable

目的:分析我国2006年后医院床位数加速增长的原因,探讨期间我国发布的医疗卫生政策法规是否影响、如何影响医院床位配置。方法:系统查阅1991-2008年《全国卫生事业财务年报资料》和1992-2011年的《中国卫生统计年鉴》,获取医院实际床位配置数据。以2006年为分界点,引入虚拟变量构建回归模型并预测。结果:模型拟合效果好,拟合优度大于0.985;2006年前后床位年增量分别为53975和448595张,两者存在显著差异。结论:推测2006年以来,我国发布的相关卫生政策通过直接和间接作用加速推动了我国医院床位配置,而含有虚拟变量的回归模型能较好地模拟这一定性因素的作用,提示该模型在卫生资源配置规划研究中具有广阔的应用前景。

Objective：Analyze the appearance of inflection point in 2006 and explore whether or how the series of health policies implemented by Chinese government since 2006 influencd the hospital beds resources allocation. Methods： National hospital bed resources data from 1991 to 2010 were analyzed to forecasted the increasing trend from 2011-2015 based on t^ummy variable regression model, approached a dummy indicating in 2006. Results： The study showed that dummy variable regression model could accurately simulate and predict the trends of the hospital bed resources allocation（goodness-of-fit index, GFI=0.985）. The tendency pro and post 2006 were statistica- lly significant different, the hospital bed resource annual increment, were 53975 and 448595respectively. Conclusion： These series of policies plaied a directly or indirectly impetus to the hospital beds disposition. This dummy variable regression model has good prediction effect, and can simulate and predict the tendency of changes of hospital bed resource in our country, and it also can provide decision support to the scientific planning and supervision of the hospital bed resources allocation, which indicated that the dummy variable regression model can be widespread used in health resource allocation research. Key Words Hospital bed; Health policy; Dummy variable