基于对称性的中国台湾地震趋势判断及物理基础

The Trend Judgment of Earthquake in Taiwan based on Symmetry Theory and its Physical Basis

在灾害的综合研究中,自然灾害风险评价是灾害研究的一个热点领域,对自然灾害进行准确的趋势判断,其理论和现实意义重大。以台湾地区地震空间对称性为切入点,着重探讨了台湾地震空间对称轴存在的合理性及其物理基础,结合可公度研究理论分析强震灾害趋势,从而为判断地震灾害未来发生的时间、空间趋势提供一些理论思考和方法借鉴。结果表明,台湾M≥7.2级地震在空间上具有明显的南北对称性特征,其对称性有一定的动力学基础,并且可以作为区域地震未来趋势判断的依据。其中2012、2014年台湾发生M≥7.2地震信号较强,须密切关注此地震趋势信息。综合空间对称性的信息分析,下次发生地震的可能地区是台湾中北部地区。该研究对认识重大灾害成因机制具有一定启示意义。

Natural disaster risk assessment is one of the hot fields of the study on natural disasters.It is theoretically and practically significant to identify the trend of natural disasters accurately.The seismic spatial symmetry in Taiwan is taken as the entering point of the discussion on the rationality and physical basis of the seismic spatial symmetry axis in Taiwan.Combined with commensurability research theory,the strong earthquake trend is analyzed to provide theoretical thinking and methods for the time and spatial trends of earthquake disasters in the future.Results show that the Ms≥7.2 earthquake in Taiwan displayed a significant north-south spatial symmetry characteristic,which is of dynamic basis and could be a judgment basis of the trends of regional earthquake disasters in the future.There is a strong signal that an earthquake（Ms≥7.2） may take place in Taiwan in 2012 or 2014 that should be paid close attention to.According to the spatial symmetry information analysis,the next earthquake region could possibly be in the north-central Taiwan.This study is signifcant in understanding the physical mechanism of the spatial symmetry.