中国经济波动分析

Analysis on China’s Economic Fluctuation

本文认为 ,1999年我国经济增长与波动的特点主要体现在 :( 1)经济增长实现了预期的宏观调控目标 ;( 2 )经济增长率延续了自 1993年开始的下滑趋势 ,但下滑幅度有所减缓 ;( 3 )各需求要素对经济增长的贡献有所变化 ;( 4)在投资需求中 ,投资的增长明显乏力 ;( 5)价格仍处于通货紧缩趋势中 ,但下降幅度亦有所减缓。作者指出 ,经济波动是总需求与总供给之间不断打破旧平衡与寻求新平衡的结果。一般地讲 ,经济增长率的持续下滑 ,是由于受到总需求不足的冲击 ,或 (和 )

ThepaperarguesthatthecharacteristicsofChina’seconomicgrowthandfluctuation wereasfollowsin 1999.Firstly ,theexpectedmacroeconomiccontrollinggoalhadbeencome true .Secondly ,thedroptrendformedsince 1993hadbeenkept,butthedropextenthad minished .Thirdly,thecontributionprovidedbyeverydemandfactorhadchanged.Fourthly , theinvestmenthadincreasedveryslowly .Fifthly ,thepricelevelhadbeenstillinthedrop trend ,butthedropextenthadalsominished .Theauthorpointsoutthateconomicfluctuation istheresultoftheoldbalancebetweenthetotaldemandandtotalsupplybeingbrokenand seekingthenewbalance .Generallyspeaking ,sustainingdropofeconomicgrowthrateisal waystheresultofinsufficienttotaldemandoradjustingthetotalsupply