中国宏观经济波动的隐性通货膨胀目标分析

Study on Implicit Inflation Target of Chinese Macroeconomic Volatility

本文利用新凯恩斯宏观经济模型对我国隐性通货膨胀目标、潜在产出和自然利率进行联合估计,并根据估计结果对我国宏观经济波动进行分析。研究结果表明,我国通货膨胀缺口可以度量我国的实际通货膨胀压力,我国的实际通货膨胀率整体上与隐性通货膨胀目标较为一致,经济政策对通货膨胀的调控具有有效性;隐性通货膨胀目标与宏观经济波动之间密切相关,通货膨胀缺口与产出缺口、实际利率缺口具有显著的动态影响关系。因此,应该充分发挥隐性通货膨胀目标在通货膨胀风险识别和预警方面的作用,提高其政策应用价值。

This paper uses new Keynesian macroeconomic model to estimate the implicit inflation target, potential output and the natural rate of interest together. According to the estimated results, the authors analyze Chinese macroeconomic volatility. The researeh resuhs show that Chinese inflation gap can measure actual inflation pressure. Chinese actual inflation is more consistent with the implicit inflation target and economic policy can control inflation effectively. Implicit inflation tat＇gel is closely related to macroecunomic volatility and the inflation gap has a significant dynamic effect with the output gap and the real interest rate gap. Therefore, the role of implicit inflation target should be given full play in the identification and warning of the risk of inflation, and the value of their policy application shouht also be improved.