虚拟经济与实体经济双向效应的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Virtual Economy and Real Economy Bidirectional Effect

本文从理论上分析虚拟经济与实体经济的相互影响机制,并论述其中相互适应与背离时的结构突变性。在理论分析基础上,本文构建了滚动回归模型,使用CUSUM检验与CUSUMSQ检验,对中国虚拟经济与实体经济双向效应进行实证分析,得出中国虚拟经济与实体经济在发展过程中会出现结构性突变、虚拟经济与实体经济开始出现背离趋势、虚拟经济与实体经济的相互影响效应不对称的结论。据此,本文提出若干建议,以促进我国实体经济与虚拟经济的协调增长。

This paper theoretically analyzes the mutual interaction mechanism between the virtual economy and real economy, and discusses adaptation and deviation from the structure of the mutability. Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper constructs the roiling regression model, using CUSUM test and CUSUMSQ test to assert empirical analysis to the virtual economy and real economy bidirectional effect in China. The conclusion is that virtual economy and real economy in China during the development process will appear structural mutation; virtual economy and real economy begin to buck the trend; virtual economy and real economy interaction effect is asymmetric. Accordingly, this paper puts forward some suggestions in order to promote the coordinated growth of the real economy and virtual economy in our country.