增值税扩围改革试点的选择:方法探讨与实证检验——基于聚类分析的结果

The Selection of Pilot Areas to Push the Value-added Tax Expanding Reform:Method Study and Empirical Test——Based on the Result of Cluster Analysis

增值税转型实施后,增值税的扩围改革提上议事日程。2011年《营业税改征增值税试点方案》的颁布,2012年1月1日增值税扩围改革在上海交通运输业和现代服务业的试行,都标志着国家推行增值税扩围改革的决心。该文以2010年31个省市的样本数据为基础,从增值税扩围改革的必要性与可行性出发,并结合试点方案,运用SPSS的K-Means聚类分析对其进行分层,最后提出应合理选择增值税扩围改革的试点地区;在增值税扩围改革中,应采取循序渐进的方式逐步推广。

With the implementation of value-added tax transformation, the VAT expanding reform is put on the agenda. Pilot Proposals for the Change from Business Tax to Value-Added Tax in 2011 and the pi- lot of VAT expanding reform in Shanghai transport industry and modern service industry on January 1, 2012 both reflect that our country are determined to carry out VAT expanding reform. Based on the sam- ple data of 31 provincial capitals in 2010,and combined with the pilot proposals,this paper stratifies the necessity and feasibility of VAT expanding reform with SPSS K-Means cluster analysis,and put forward some corresponding policy recommendations, including choosing proper pilot areas for VAT expanding reform and popularizing it gradually.