基于环境“EKC”理论的农村面源污染实证研究

Empirical Research of Rural Non-point Source Pollution Based on the Theory of “EKC”

近年来,农业化肥和农药的大量使用,畜禽养殖的粪尿的随意排放以及农作物秸秆的不合理利用带来了严重的农村面源污染。结合环境"EKC"理论,立足于农村经济发展,将农村人均GDP作为研究指标,改进了相关研究中选取整体人均GDP指标的局限。实证分析了江苏省2001～2010年的农村经济发展与面源污染的关系,结果验证了环境"EKC"假说,即农村经济发展与农村面源污染呈现出了倒"U"形关系。另外,化肥和农药污染的曲线拐点值分别为2.13和1.97,2010年实际人均GDP已经与曲线的拐点值很接近,表明化肥和农药带来的污染已经逐渐趋于平缓;而畜禽粪尿污染的曲线拐点值为3.44,远大于2010年实际人均GDP,表明随着农村经济的发展,农村畜禽粪尿带来的污染将严重恶化,成为农村面源污染的主要来源。

In recent years, excess use of chemical fertilizer and pesticide, random discharge of excrement and urine of livestock and poultry and unreasonable use of crop straw brought serious rural non-point source pollution. Referring the ＂ EKC＂ theory and based on tlhe development of rural economy, taking rural per capita GDP as the research index to improve the limitation that use the whole per capita GDP index in the related research. The relationship between rural economic development and ：non-point source pollution of Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2010 was empirically researched. The results verified the ＂EKC＂ hypothesis, namely their relationship displayed as ＂inverted U＂. In addition, knee point of the chemical fertilizer and pesticide in ＂EKC＂ curve was 2.13 and 1.97, respectively, and the actual per capita GDP in 2010 was closed to it, thereby indicating pollution of chemical fertilizer and pesticide was tending to mild; but knee point of excrement and urine of livestock and poultry in ＂EKC＂ curve was 3.44, which far away from the actual per capita GDP, thereby indicating pollution from excrement and urine of livestock and poultry would be serious deterioration with developmenl of rural economy, it became main source of rural non-point pollution.