核桃、板栗市场需求预测模型的研究

Study on the Forecast Model of Walnut and Chinese Chestnut Market Demand

经对国内外市场环境进行分析，确定影响核桃、板栗市场需求的因素为：①经济状况；②人口状况；③消费偏好；④市场环境。建立了有购买力的需求模型Y=11.3+0.674X1+0.393X2+0.303X3。经显著性及拟合度检验，证明预测模型合理。为决策经营者在云南发展核桃、板栗提供了科学依据。

A market demand model Y=11.3 + 0.674X1 + 0. 393X2 + 0.303X3 has been established through analysis on market envir onment in and outside of China. In the analysis, economic state, population, con sumption preference and market environment are regarded as factors of influencin g Walnut and Chinese Chestnut market demand. The significance and fitness tests demonstrate that the model established is reasonable. It has provided sci entific foundations for policymakers and managers to develop Walnut and Chinese Chestnut market in Yunnan.