杏毛球蚧产卵量预测预报中的曲线拟合法

Model of Curve Estimation on the Forecast of Oviposition Amount

杏毛球蚧是绣线菊等园林花卉的重要害虫 ,其产卵多、繁殖强、危害重 ,准确测报发生量 ,是对其防治成败的关键之一。1999年 4～ 6月通过对杏毛球蚧产卵末期虫体重 (x1 )、体长 (x2 )及产卵量 (x3)的测定 ,用计算机软件拟合实际观测值得出了其产卵量与体重的最佳相关方程式为 :^Y =-118880 83 .464 3X3+143 0 488.5 472X2 +610 0 9.45 3 3X +15 .2 0 89,r =0 .9694(r0 .0 1 =0 .4969)。达极显著水平 。

Didesmococcus koreanus Borchs is the serious pest of Sqiraea salicifolia and other garden flowers. In order to conrtol the pest,it is very important to forecast accurately its amount.In 1999,by studying on weight,length and ovipositing amount of the egg laying of the pest,results were as follows: the mean weight 1=0.0486±0.0158(g),the average length 2=5.16±0.46(mm),ovipositing amount 3=4919.6± 1812.8 .There was an optimal relations between ovipositing amount and weight that estimated by the software of computer.The equation was: = -118 880 83.464 3X 3 +143 048 8.547 2X 2+610 09.453 3X+15.208 9,r=0.9694(r 0.01 =0.496 9)。 Based on those parametors,the forecast was quite successful.