采用故障树法的BT项目进度风险分析及控制

Progress Risk Analysis and Control of BT Project Based on Fault Tree Analysis Method

采用故障树分析方法,根据建设-移交(BT)项目的特点,对影响项目进度的原因进行逐层分解,建立BT项目进度风险分析的故障树模型.以某市迎宾大道拓改建工程为例,通过求解该项目故障树的最小割集和底事件的结构重要度,并根据结构重要度的排序来探寻各因素对进度延误影响程度的大小,提出相应的进度控制措施.

According to the characteristics of BT（build-transfer） project,the model of fault tree analysis was established to analyze the various reasons influencing the project progress,and to investigate BT project progress risk.Taking an urban Yingbin Avenue extension reconstruction as an example,the minimum cut sets of fault tree and the structure importance degrees of bottom events were found.The degrees of various factors affecting the project progress are ranked in accordance with the structure importance.The measures to control the progress are put forward.