中国服务业发展的动因及其影响的实证研究

Empirical Study of the Dynamic Force of Service Industry in China and Its Influences

随着经济的发展,服务业在各国经济中的作用越来越重要。根据1978年至2011年中国服务业数据资料进行实证分析,得出了我国服务业需求的收入弹性系数、价格弹性系数以及交叉弹性系数,用配第—克拉克定理与鲍莫尔—富克斯假说进行了验证,发现我国服务业发展状况基本与上述定理与假说吻合。同时分析表明,中国服务业发展的主要动因是经济发展带来的GDP的持续增长,而服务业价格水平及制造业价格水平对服务业发展有显著的影响力,未来中国服务业的发展空间和发展前景十分广阔。

Service industry has played a more and more important role with the economic development. An empirical analysis herein concludes the income elastic coefficient; the price elastic coefficient and the intersected elastic coefficient based on the data of service industry in China from 1978 to 2011. The application of Petty-Clark Theorem and Baumol-Fuchs Hypothesis proves that present situation of the service industry in China is identical to the above Theorem and Hypothesis; the dynamic force of service industry develop- ment is the sustainable growth of GDP; prices of service and prices of manufacturing influence greatly the development; the spaces and prospects of service industry in China is promising.