中国服装出口动态增长的比较研究——马尔可夫转移矩阵应用

A Comparative Research on Dynamic Growth of China’s Apparel Export——An Application ofMarkovTransition Matrix

自2001年中国入世,尤其是2005年多纤维协定(MFA)消亡,全球产业网络重构加速,中国服装出口呈现出高速增长的态势,老牌与新兴服装出口国展开新一轮竞争。通过研究2000—2010年的服装出口数据发现,中国、欧盟15国、东盟等经济体的服装出口不断增长,而其市场占有率则相互转移不断变化。马尔可夫转移矩阵是分析这种转移特性和变化过程的有效工具。运用马尔可夫转移矩阵,研究十年来世界服装市场上中国与其竞争对手的动态增长和转移情况,并预测该市场未来五年的变化。

Since China became a member of WTO in 2001 and Multi-Fibre Arrangement（ MFA ）phased out in 2005, global production network（ GPN ）has accelerated in restructuring.China has experienced rapid growth in apparel export, and old and emerging textile exporting countries are launching a new competition.The research on apparel export data from 2000 to 2010 shows that China, EU 15 and ASEAN have experienced continuous growth on apparel export, and that their market share have been changing and transferring.Markov Transition Matrix（MTM）is an effective tool to analyze the property and process of this kind of change and transition.Using MTM ,a research is carried out to analyze the dynamic growth and transition of China and its competitors on world apparel market, and to predict the changes of this market in the next five years.