城市轨道交通“建设-转让”项目回购总价关键风险因素分析

Analysis of Key Risk Factors in Repurchase Total Price of Urban Rail Transit BT Project

城市轨道交通BT(建设-转让)项目成功的关键在于能否合理分担风险及确定风险因素承担的主体。通过文献研究构建了城市轨道交通BT项目的EBS-CBS矩阵,并基于风险分担原则构建了风险分担影响因素的理论模型,提出和建立了城市轨道交通BT项目风险分担框架。针对12种关键风险因素,按照BT主办方、BT承办方和BT项目双方进行了分解,得到了风险分配矩阵。结合问卷调查验证了理论分析的准确性、可行性。该项研究成果明确了关键风险因素的责任方,有利于确定工作重点,保证BT项目顺利完成。

Defining the main body of risk factors＇ under- taker is the key to achieve success of urban rail transit BT project based on reasonably risk allocation. According to previous studies, the EBS-CBS matrix of urban rail transit BT project, and the theoretical model of risk allocation in- fluencing factors based on risk sharing principle are estab- lished, the risk allocation framework of urban rail transit BT project is proposed. On the basis of EBS-CBS matrix, on the model and framework of risk allocation, at the same time by sharing 12 key risk factors among BT sponsors, BT undertakers and both sides in BT project, a risk allocation matrix is established. A case study is used to verify the ac- curacy of the theoretical analysis, and the results indicate that the identification of risk factors undertakers is benefi- cial to confirm their key work points, and finally to ensure the success of BT project completion.