我国钢铁工业碳排放影响因素分解分析

The Decomposition Analysis on the Influencing Factors of China’s Steel Industry Carbon Emission

本文针对我国钢铁工业能源消耗和钢铁需求刚性的特征,依据国外著名学者Yoichi Kaya提出的Kaya恒等式,构建了钢铁工业碳排放影响因素的分解模型,并利用协整方法探讨了碳排放量与影响因素之间的均衡关系。研究表明:钢铁工业增加值每增长1个百分点,碳排放量平均增加25.58万吨;能源消耗1吨标煤,释放出的二氧化碳为1.25吨;能源消耗经济效益每增长1个百分点,碳排放量平均降低38.58万吨;钢铁消耗量每增长1个百分点,碳排放量平均增加13.03万吨。基于此,依据定量分析的结论从控制我国钢铁工业的增长速度、增加清洁能源比例、进行技术创新3个方面提出了相关对策建议。

In the view of the characters in energy consumption and demand for steel rigid, this article buikls factorizafion model of steel industry carbon emission reduction based on the Kaya identity and the current domestic and international research, and study the long -term equilibrium relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and influencing factors by the method of co - integration. The study showed that： the steel industry is every increase of one percentage point, then an average increase of 255800 tons of carbon emissions; energy consumption of 1 ton of standard coal, releasing carbon dioxide of 1.25 tons; economic efficiency of energy consumption for every increase of one percentage point, and then the average carbon emissions by 385800 tons; steel consumption for every increase of one per- eentnge point, while carbon emissions increased by an average of 130300 tons from theoretical point of view. Therefore, the relevant coun-termeasures of controlling the growth rate of iron and steel industry, increasing the proportion of clean energy, and technological innovation are proposed from the view of behavior subject.