基于GM(1,1)模型的东北三省人口——经济系统协调发展研究

The Research on Population and Economy System Coordinate Development of the Three Northeast Provinces Based on the GM(1,1) Model

为准确预测东北三省及其36个城市2015年及2020年的人口——经济系统协调发展状况,本文在已有的1995～2010年人口——经济系统协调发展状况分析的基础上,运用基于灰色系统的GM(1,1)模型进行预测并分析其协调发展类型、过渡发展类型及不协调发展类型在空间格局上的变化。36个地级市、州、区及以上城市的人口——经济系统协调度总体呈上升态势,但部分城市呈持续波动性发展,甚至协调度不断降低,究其原因主要表现为人口老龄化、人口文化素质偏低及产业结构不合理几方面,并在此基础上从人口、经济、社会方面提出相应的可操作性对策,以引导人口——经济系统的良性发展。

In order to accurately predict the coordinated development status of population - economic system in three provinces and their 36 cities in Northeast China in 2015 and 2020, based on the existing analysis of the situation between China＇s population and economy from 1995 to 2010, and by adopting the GM model, which is based on the grey system theory, this paper to forecasts and analyzes the changes of types of coordinated development, transitional development, and uneoordinated development in the spatial pattern. Though the overall coordination level of population-economic system is on the rise, and part of the city is in sustained development of volatility or even reduce in some cities. The main masons are the aging of population, the low quality of population culture and the ~nable industrial structure. Base on the investigation about those reasons, this paper puts forward some corresponding operational to guide a sound development of the population-economic system. in order