中国产业能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解--基于广义GFI的指数分解

Decomposing Factors of Variation in Carbon Emission of Energy Consumption in China's Industry-Based on the Generalized Index Decomposition

基于扩展的Johan恒等式及广义费雪指数分解(GFI)方法,建立了1995～2010年中国能源消费人均碳排放因素分解模型,定量分析了产业能源结构、产业能源强度、产业结构、经济产出四个因素对我国能源消费的人均碳排放的影响。对比拉氏指数和D氏指数分解法,姑模型具有更好的因素分解特性,能够消除分解的残差项,使得分解结果更加准确。实证结果显示:经济产出的持续增长是我国人均碳排放增长的主导因素,该阶段总贡献比例为42.84%;产业能源结构与产业结构对我国人均碳排放的增长起到了微弱的拉动效应,贡献比例分别为21.99%和21.24%;而产业能源强度对我国的人均碳排放的增长呈现显著的抑制效应,贡献比例为13.94%,并且产业能源强度的抑制作用表现出逐年增强的趋势。

This paper establishes a decomposition model of energy consumption per capita carbon emission from 1995 to 2010 in China based on the extended Johan identity and the generalized Fisher Index Decomposition （GFI）, and quantatively analyzes the intpacts of industrial energy mix, industrial energy intensity, industrial structure and economic sclale on per capita carbon emissions with the GFI method. Compared with the index of the Laspeyres and Divisia decomposition method, the GFI method demonstrates good factor decomposition characteristics, and can eliminate the decomposition residual and obtain more accurate results. The empirical results show that economic growth is exponential growth in the contribution rate of per capita carbon emissions in China from 1995 to 2010. Factor of economic growth is the dominant factor in the stage of growth of per capita carbon emissions. At this stage, the proportion of the total contribution is 42.84%. The empirical results also show that： （1） the sustainable growth of economic output is the dominant factor of growth of per capita carbon emissions in China, at that stage the proportion of the total contribution of 42. 84%; （2） industrial energy mix and the growth of the industrial structure of per capita carbon emissions in China have a weak stimulating effect and contribution ratios were 21.99% and 21.24% respectively% （3） industrial energy intensity of per capita carbon emissions growth in China has a significant inhibitory effect, with the contribution ratio of 13.94%, and the inhibition of the industrial energy intensity is gradually increased.