基于新疆农业结构调整下的农业内部增收潜力分析

Analysis of Latent Capacity to Increase the Interior Income Based on the Structural Adjustment of Xinjiang Agriculture

【目的】农业结构调整一直是困扰新疆农业发展的重大问题。研究在2010年种养规模、生产力水平以及价格的前提下，通过结构优化，测算结构调整对新疆农业内部增收的贡献。【方法】利用Lingo软件建立线性规划模型，对新疆种植业、林果业、畜牧业进行结构优化，分析农业内部的增收潜力。【结果】结构优化后，新疆农业产值将达到1231．44×10^8元，农民生产经营收入达到9851元。新疆农业内部增收潜力最大的是畜牧业，占总产值的41．33％，其次是林果业，从占总产值的10％提高到17．43％。林果业和畜牧业将是未来增收的重点。【结论】通过农业结构调整新疆农业内部还具有一定的增收空间，农业产值将提高44．32％，农民生产经营收入将提高68．83％。这将是今后挖掘农业内部增收潜力的重要途径之一。

[ Objective ] Xinjiang agricultural development has been troubled by the major issue of agricultural structure adjustment. This paper, in view of the status quo of breeding size, productivity level, as well as under the premise of price, measured and calculated the interior income contribution by the structural adjustment of agriculture in Xinjiang through the structure optimization,. [ Method] Lingo software was applied to establish a linear programming model to optimize the structure of Xinjiang farming, horticulture, and animal husbandry and analyze the income potential within the agriculture itself. [ Result] After the structural optimization, Xinjiang agricultural output value will reach 1 231.44×10^8 yuan, the farmers＇production and operating income will reach 9,851 yuan. Horticuhure and animal husbandry will be the focus of the future income[ Conclusion]Through the adjustment of agricultural structure in Xinjiang, there must be some income space, agricultural output will be increased by 44.32%, and the farmers＇ production and operating income will be increased by 68.83 %. This will be an important way of tapping the interior agriculture to increase the income potential in the future.