VIC模型在三江源地区产汇流模拟中的应用

Application of VIC model to Runoff Simulation of Three-Source Regions

基于大尺度陆面水文模型VIC模型,以纳什效率系数、相关系数及相对误差为评判标准,对三江源地区产汇流过程进行了模拟分析。结果表明:三江源地区产流存在明显的时间和空间分布,产流主要发生在6～9月与降水的空间分布相吻合,且受东亚季风的影响,产流量随纬度的升高而减小;VIC模型能较好地模拟三江源地区年内及年际流量的变化过程,具有较高的模拟精度,具体表现为纳什效率系数在0.65～0.80之间,黄河源区、长江源区、澜沧江源区相对误差分别为-0.3%、8.8%、-15.2%,可见VIC模型在三江源地区具有较高的适用性,能用于该地区水文过程的模拟及气候变化对水资源影响的研究。

Based on a macro scale land hydrological model, the hydrological processes are simulated by the VIC mod- el. The model performance evaluation is based on Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, correlation coefficient and relative error. The results show that there is a large temporal and spatial variation in runoff yield;the runoff yield mostly appears in summer （June-September）, which is consistent with the spatial of precipitation; runoff yield is affected by the East Asian Mon- soon, and there is an decreasing trend for runoff yield along with increasing latitude; the VIC model is able to simulate the seasonal and inter-annual variations of streamflow in three-source regions with high precision; Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is in the range of 0.65 and 0.80; the relative error in source region of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Mekong is -0.3G, 8.8G, -15.2G, respectively. Therefore, the VIC model has applicability to three-source regions and it can be used to simulate the hydrological process as well as assess the impact of climate change on water resources in study areas.