水利项目投资决策评价方法研究

Evaluation Method of Hydropower Project Investment Decision-making

鉴于目前在水利项目投资决策中应用的评价方法或过分依赖专家主观经验或对分析数据的要求过于严格,同时水利项目投资决策中的评价因子的选取尚无统一标准,运用极大不相关法对水利项目投资决策中的多个评价指标因子进行了复相关分析,剔除了复相关系数较大的指标因子,并将简化后的指标因子构成决策评价体系。同时结合模糊概率理论建立了水利项目投资决策的模糊概率模型。实例应用结果表明,该方法克服了其在实际应用中评价指标权重取值的局限性,具有明显的合理性,能在实践中得到广泛应用。

The evaluation methodology depends upon experts＇ suhiective experiences excessively and treats the data strictly, which is applied in the investment decision making of hydropower project at present. Meanwhile, there＇s no uni form standard for choosing evaluation index. Maximal uncorrelated method is used to analyze muhiple correlations of the evaluation indexes for investment decision-making of hydropower project. And then it eliminates the evaluation indexes which have larger complex correlation coefficients. The evaluation decision-making system is built with simplified inde xes. Finally, the fuzzy probability theory is applied to establish the fuzzy probability model of hydropower project invest- ment decision-making. The application results show that the modified evaluation model overcomes the limitations of choo sing evaluation index weight in practice. So, it is obviously rational and widespread used.